Pic-of-the-Week: County Jobless Rates Show Strengthening Oklahoma Economy (09/01/2014)

NEARLY ALL OKLAHOMA COUNTIES HAVE DECLINING UNEMPLOYMENT RATES THE PAST YEAR. There are a number of ways to gauge the underlying strength of a state economy. One useful way is to measure the cumulative health of the individual counties. We often do this using a simple form of diffusion index which is simply the sum of counties with a declining unemployment rate the past 12 months. For Oklahoma the indicator has returned to very positive territory. After sluggishness in the state economy in 2013, the state has bounced back in 2014 with the jobless rate in a distinct downtrend in nearly every county.

The latest measure for July shows 72 of 77 counties with a declining jobless rate. This is an extremely high share of counties and happens only rarely. In fact, in April 2014, all 77 counties had a declining rate, only the second time this has happened (Feb./Apr. 2008) since 1990. The index came close to the peak in May and June of 2014, with 76 counties posting a declining rate.